With four weeks of the campaign for the 2021 Federal elections in Canada remaining, the party leader (and caretaker Prime Minister) Justin Trudeau’s gamble for calling snap polls amid a fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic may partly pay off. Trudeau is favored to move the following government, whether or not that may still need a majority within the House of Commons.
Trudeau was strangely absent from the campaign trail on Saturday, but the most recent polls indicate the ruling Liberal Party may garner additional seats but, as things appear, not gain enough to urge a majority that was the rationale behind risking the elections scheduled on September 20.
Poll trackers don’t seem to be exactly in line with Trudeau’s ambition to capture a majority and not rely on support from another party to implement its agenda as his government had to try to after the 2019 Federal elections when the Liberal Party fell 13 seats in need of the 170 majority mark within the 338 seats House of Commons.
Of course, when he first came to power in Ottawa in October 2015, Trudeau led his party to a thumping victory with 184 seats.
That a minority verdict is also within the offing was underscored by the updated Poll Tracker from the news outlet CBC, which noted, “The Liberals still hold a lead over the Conservatives in national polling and would likely gain seats if an election were held today, but are slipping further removed from being accessible of the 170 seats needed for a majority government.”
The ruling party has 34.2% support, against 30.1% for the principal opposition party, the Conservatives. No tracker gives the Conservatives enough seats to capture a majority or perhaps emerge because of the single-largest party.
Modeling from the election analysis outlet 338 Canada projects an identical scenario: As of Saturday, Trudeau’s party is slated to capture 156 seats, with the Conservatives getting 117. It also puts the percentages of the Liberals getting a majority at just 26.4%.
The latest Federal vote intention data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute also places the Liberals comfortably earlier than their rivals, with 36% support against 30% for the Conservatives.
As it stands, Trudeau is sort of absolute to return as Prime Minister, but his objective of securing a majority can be thwarted by the voters.