No government will be as closely watched as that of President-elect Joe Biden’s. After four years of Donald Trump’s rollercoaster, the world will look for evidence that the new Democratic Alliance President says, “America is back.” Despite winning the prestigious election and the administration of Washington’s heroes, travel will not be easy.
The Trump war against Biden is a warning that the Republican Party will remain indifferent and irrational. The right can still govern the Senate and have a good chance of reclaiming both houses in the 2022 elections. Biden has stated that he is a one-time president who will give the position of a disabled duck in early 2023. The President-elect wants to awaken the spirit of the age complex. But Trump is working hard and dirty to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Biden’s foreign policy strategy is to spend as little time on foreign policy as possible. He believes the US needs more social engineering at home if it wants to avoid throwing someone like Trump. He wants to reduce defense spending and has good plans to revitalize America’s infrastructure, green energy and transportation, and revitalize health care and its education programs. But how are you going to do all this while facing the “Death to America” block of China, Russia, Iran and Turkey? That will be his greatest challenge on earth.
Biden’s strategy is to revitalize the US coalition framework, which is more widespread than any other country in the world and compiled by Trump. That is why he continues to talk about Europe and NATO. He will also be soft on Israel, India and other countries close to the US strategically but mentally far from the Democrats. Biden will seek to create a coalition that is willing to compete with China in 5G technology or in Belt and Road infrastructure. But you’ll look down on military responses, so expect the US to force Quad to be more of a supply chain and less of aircraft carrier. At the same time, Washington will try to work with Beijing and Moscow on international issues. Biden called for cooperation with China on “climate change, insecurity and global health security.”
All of this sounds good on paper. Proof of the pudding will be on the food and Biden can still choke. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has already warned that if Washington wants to work, it must look the other way when it comes to Xinjiang and Hong Kong – both of which will be black holes for human rights next year. And both governments are embroiled in controversy with Taiwan. The president-elect said he sees Russia as a bigger threat than China. The best thing is Biden’s plans to revitalize nuclear talks with Iran. Tehran is already ready to expand oil production in anticipation of a reduction in sanctions.
The good news for the Narendra Modi government is that India is well on track with much that Biden wants to achieve at the international level. And what Biden’s party does not like about India, especially in the area of human rights issues in the past, will be relatively small compared to the unpopularity of other governments. The next US president has said he plans to hold a climate summit – where Modi can expect a seat at the top of the table – as well as another democratic one – where he should wait for a private talk on what Biden called a “democratic return.” Biden said he would not immediately negotiate trade agreements as New Delhi did not comply with the FTAs.
Biden is sworn in on January 20 and will face two immediate tests. One finding his or her choice of senior staff is approved by the Senate. Some of them show that they are able to handle the release of Covid-19 vaccine better than Trump handled any aspect of the epidemic. After that, he will need to advance his domestic agenda despite opposition and weakening Republicans. Then comes the whole world.