NEW YORK – Less than two months before the US election, President Donald Trump has a hard time empowering his key supporters, especially white undocumented white voters who were key to his 2016 success, a analysis said.
The analysis, based on national opinion polls from May to August and 2016 outgoing data, found that Trump had lost support among white college-educated whites, who made up 44% of American voters four years ago and were more Republican-minded than Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Trump is still more popular with the party than Democratic Alliance nominee Joe Biden, with 46% saying they would vote for Trump, compared to 34% for Biden. But his 12-point gain in August fell from a 21-point lead in May, and is lower than the 34-point gain he had over Clinton. tmsnrt.rs/2ZajmYu
Of particular concern to Trump, however, is that the region’s commitment to voting remains unchanged this year, while interest has grown among Democrat-based groups: juniors, women, city dwellers and city dwellers and people with lower incomes.
The data suggests that in this case, there will be greater pressure on the Republican Party – not the Democratic Party – to increase the number of voters to win.
An Ipsos data analysis shows that Biden leads Trump by 10 percent in election cases involving only the most active, or “likely” voters. Trump is very much interested in Biden’s profits only in the context of high voting.
The Republican Party has traditionally attracted Americans who are heavily involved in politics, including the majority of seniors, white voters, religious observers and gun owners.
Republican candidates often expect to do better in an election where the turnout is low.
Certainly, Trump’s foundation is likely to be severely compromised as we approach election day. The August vote shows that 20% of white voters without a college degree remain undecided. In 2016, nearly one in eight Trump voters said they were holding their election last week of the campaign, according to the Ipsos poll at the time.
Suffering on a white foundation
Despite the growing minority, whites still hold U.S. voters, accounting for about a third of the electorate in 2016, even though they make up only 60% of the total population.
Their views were very important to Trump, who during his presidency focused on xenophobia and expressed sympathy for white racism. Trump has denounced anti-apartheid protesters as “criminals,” and recently defended a white-armed man accused of killing two Black Lives Matter protesters in Wisconsin.
According to the Ipsos vote in August, 61% of non-college whites believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, and 53% think the same about the U.S. economy. More than 70% say they are concerned about the coronavirus epidemic, and only 48% approve of Trump’s response to the crisis.
Meanwhile, 48% of white college-educated whites said they would support Biden and 40% said they would support Trump. This compares with the 2016 exit poll that showed Clinton had just two points from Trump and the same party.
Trump campaign spokesman Hogan Gidley said the internal vote showed the president was “imprisoned or foremost in all key areas of the war.”
“Our data shows that supporters are very enthusiastic and happy to vote for the President, unlike a small minority of Democrats who like Joe Biden,” Gidley said.
Media outlets and academic organizations currently show Biden ahead of at least a few points in many areas of war, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and Arizona, however.
Trump’s efforts to ban postal voting in the wake of the coronavirus epidemic – which, without evidence that it will lead to widespread fraud – may be backed up if data shows that high turnout will work for him.
“Some people will be discouraged, some people will be motivated to go back and vote, and some will be confused about what to do,” said Myrna Perez, director of the Voting Rights and Elections Program at Brennan Center for Justice.